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HILP is on the Way!
Observability Insights

HILP is on the Way!

Airline pilots spend years preparing for serious problems that may never occur – but no matter how unlikely a scenario may be, they have to be ready for it. Systems administrators also have to constantly prepare for extremely rare events that can have catastrophic consequences. Welcome to the world of HILP: High Impact/Low Probability events, unpredictable anomalies that while rare can carry devastating consequences that can cripple projects, economies, or infrastructure. Because traditional risk models often overlook them, organizations must prioritize resilience and contingency planning over simple probability forecasting.
May 28, 2026 · 5 min read · Marek Walczak

IBM i systems are the unsung heroes powering critical business operations across countless industries. Their reputation for reliability is well-earned, yet the very complexity and interconnectedness that make them robust also leave them vulnerable to a specific, insidious threat: High Impact, Low Probability (HILP) events. These aren't your everyday glitches; they are rare occurrences with the potential to cripple operations, leading to devastating financial, regulatory, and reputational damage.

Traditional risk management strategies, while crucial, often fall short when it comes to HILP events. They focus on redundancy, backups, and disaster recovery – essential safeguards against known failures. However, HILP events are characterized by their unpredictability. They emerge from the intricate dance of countless components, where a seemingly minor anomaly can cascade through the system in non-linear ways, amplified by cross-domain dependencies and often occurring below the threshold of conventional monitoring tools. Think of a several-millisecond I/O stall that, through a chain reaction of journaling delays and commitment control stalls, brings your entire online workload to a standstill.

The inherent nature of these events leads to their underappreciation. Human psychology tends to discount rare occurrences, and even IBM i's stellar uptime statistics can foster a dangerous sense of complacency. This creates a perilous gap between perceived and actual risk, leaving organizations exposed to catastrophic surprises that no amount of traditional planning can fully prevent. The financial implications alone are staggering, and when you add in the specter of regulatory fines, legal penalties, and the irreparable damage to customer trust and brand reputation, and the imperative to address HILP events becomes clear.

This is where i-Rays, an advanced early warning and observability platform purpose-built for IBM i, steps in. Unlike traditional monitoring tools that rely on static thresholds and predefined rules, i-Rays embraces a more intelligent, proactive approach. It shifts the focus from reacting to failures to anticipating them.

At its core, i-Rays employs Behavioral Intelligence. Instead of just tracking metrics, it analyzes the intricate timing dependencies within your IBM i environment, building a unique behavioral baseline for your specific setup. This allows it to detect subtle drifts and anomalies that might otherwise go unnoticed. These are the faint whispers that often precede a HILP event, surfacing meaningful deviations hours before they escalate into a full-blown incident.

Leveraging AI and machine learning, i-Rays excels at pattern recognition, identifying hidden deviations from normal behavior and uncovering correlations across a vast array of system metrics. Its adaptive learning capabilities ensure that its detection accuracy evolves with changing transaction patterns, minimizing false positives and honing its ability to spot novel threats. Furthermore, its dynamic anomaly scoring prioritizes alerts based on context and potential risk, ensuring your team focuses on what truly matters.

The benefits are profound. i-Rays provides Root Cause Analysis through application dependency maps and signature analysis, drastically reducing Mean Time To Detect (MTTD) and Mean Time To Resolve (MTTR). Crucially, it operates with a Zero Footprint, meaning no intrusive agents or instrumentation impact your mission-critical systems. For broader observability, it integrates seamlessly with enterprise ecosystems via native OpenTelemetry support.

In an era of increasing system complexity and a persistent shortage of skilled administrators, the risk of HILP events on IBM i is arguably on the rise. While some failures may be inevitable, their devastating impact is not. By embracing the proactive, intelligent approach of i-Rays, organizations can transform their risk management strategy, building unparalleled resilience and navigating the unforeseen with confidence.

See your IBM i in a completely new way.

See your IBM i in a completely new way.

See your IBM i in a completely new way.
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